Friday, August 20, 2010

Perhaps A Brief Tornado In Central And Northern Indiana Tomorrow?

The Latest Day 2 Outlook From The Storm Prediction Center's Jared Guyer Looks A Bit Interesting:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0149 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010



VALID 211200Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH

VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...



...GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY/ARKLATEX...

CURRENT NORTH-CENTRAL STATES/UPPER MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL

CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY...CROSSING THE

MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE HEIGHTS OTHERWISE BUILD ACROSS THE

PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY

ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE

MIDWEST...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL HEATING SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO A RENEWED INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR BY AFTERNOON

ACROSS THE REGION.



WHILE A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS NOT

ANTICIPATED...HAVE INTRODUCED A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WHERE A

SUFFICIENT JUXTAPOSITION OF DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN

CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ARE

EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CORRIDOR FROM THE

GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/ARKLATEX...THE

STRONGEST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR

CLUSTERS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND/PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL RISK MAINLY

FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.



ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN 12Z NAM/GFS FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS


ATTENDANT TO THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW


ROTATING STORMS WITHIN A MOIST/LIMITED BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT ACROSS


PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN OH/SOUTHEAST LOWER


MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.



The tornado parameters off the SREF aren't that impressive, but last image off the NAM shows a very compact, but strong vort max coming through Illinois by afternoon/evening. With the 70's dew points in place, high cape, and a residual boundary from overnight storms likely in place, a couple of rotating storms will be possible. If they were tornadic, with the barely modest mid/upper level wind fields any tornadoes would likely be small and short lived:





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